2021年伊始，世界多国依旧在新冠疫情笼罩下。然而全球投资者对不明朗因素“已读不回”，造就全球金融市场领头羊美国股市势如破竹，屡创新高。除了股市以外，加密货币和大宗商品市场如黄金和原油也节节攀升。投资者乐观情绪在金融市场乃至社交媒体上随处可见。不少人的社交媒体上也许会被拥有比特币（Bitcoin）的人炫耀战绩的帖子“洗版”。然而，与其在想：我有水晶球可以预测到比特币的价格就好，不如先了解比特币是何方神圣。
比特币是由化名中本聪（Satoshi Nakamoto）的身份不明人士在2009年创造的一种加密货币。它就像是在线上的现金。它可以被用来购买商品和服务。比特币的交易代码为BTC，它的价格于2021年1月8日一度突破4万美元／约16万令吉大关。如果它是一间上市公司，超过6000亿美元／2.4兆令吉的市值足以使其跻身世界第十大市值的公司，超越股神巴菲特创办的波克夏海瑟威和台积电。
相较于传统货币，比特币不是由中央银行发行或监管。区块链技术（blockchain technology）是比特币的基础技术。这是一种去中央化、通过自身分布式节点进行网络数据的存储、验证、传递和交流的一种技术方案。已完成的交易是不可被篡改或逆转的。
考究比特币的价值
2019年6月4日，大马证券监督委员会（SC）已注册3家经认可市场营运商（RMO）以在大马设立和经营数码资产交易所（DAX）。目前，大马证券监督委员会是通过已经生效的《2019年资本市场和服务（证券处方）（数码货币和数码代币）法令》对加密货币行业进行监管。
由于比特币的发行上限大约为2100万枚，有投资者认为稀缺性（scarcity）正是它的价值所在。其实国家法定货币数目也是有限，而潜在虚拟货币种类无限，比特币的替代品是无限的。比特币仅仅是众多加密货币的其中一种。房地产市场中凶宅也很稀缺，但是价值却低于一般房产。
也有者把比特币的价值归于它的成本价（cost price），因为“挖矿”过程中需消耗电源。有成本价并不代表有价值。打个比方，某人上山，花了几个小时挖出了一堆垃圾，当中涉及时间成本，但是劳动的结果没有产生效用，所以是没有价值的。
芝加哥商品交易所（CME）和芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）于2017年12月推出了各自的现金结算比特币期货交易产品。此举被投资者视为全球性交易所为比特币加持和引入主流金融世界的重要里程碑。有了期货，比特币本身普遍接受性（general acceptability）相对提高。两家交易所对于比特币期货节节攀升交易量显示投资者对比特币期货兴致勃勃。有了交易所提供的官方平台支撑了比特币的价格。投资者能在比特币价格波动时做出调整持有。
除此之外，不妨从名义价值（nominal value）考究比特币。举例而言，一个名牌手提袋的售价可以是数万令吉，如果雇佣同样的工匠打造出相同的手提袋却没有冠上商标，价格却天渊之别。撇开原料和劳动成本，究竟为什么一个名牌的手提袋比普通手提袋贵上几十倍？那是因为厂家通过广告（品牌效应）宣传或重金礼聘当红明星（名人效应）成为品牌代言人提高手提袋的名义价值。同样的，比特币的价值可能是基于名义价值。
短期内，投资者倾向于押注在备受追捧的投资产品上而容易把“冯京”当“马凉”。须知价格有别于价值。借用股神巴菲特的话“只有当潮水退去，你才知道谁在裸泳”。每位投资者在做任何投资决定前一定要了解相关的投资产品。
《比特币有价格就是有价值？》（Is Bitcoin valuable because it fetches a good price?）原文：
As we ushered in 2021, many countries around the world are still under the threat of the pandemic. However, global investors looked past uncertainties, and their optimism has sent U.S. stocks, the bellwether of global financial markets, soaring to new highs. Besides the stock market, cryptocurrencies and commodity markets such as gold and crude oil have also been increasing steadily. Investor’s optimism is prevalent in financial markets and even on social media. Many people may have their social media profiles deluged by the posts bragging about their profits. We might not stop thinking how good it would be if we have had a crystal ball that can predict the price of Bitcoin. Above all else, we must first seek the understanding about Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency created in 2009 by an unknown person using pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. It is like online cash. It can be used to buy goods and services. Bitcoin is traded under the ticker BTC, briefly crossed the $40,000 mark on 8 January 2021. If it were a public company, its market capitalisation would be more than $600 billion. which would make it the tenth largest listed company in the world, ahead of Berkshire Hathaway of Warren Buffett and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited （TSMC）.
Unlike traditional currencies, Bitcoin is not issued or regulated by a central bank. Blockchain technology is the underlying technology of Bitcoin. This is a decentralized, distributed through its own nodes for network data storage, verification, transmission and communication of a technical solution. Completed transactions cannot be amended and irreversible.
On 4 June 2019, the Securities Commission（SC） registered three recognized market operators（RMOs） to set up and operate a Digital Asset Exchange （DAX） in Malaysia. Currently, the Malaysian Securities Commission regulates the cryptocurrency industry through the Capital Markets and Services （Prescription of Securities） （Digital Currency and Digital Token） Order 2019, which has come into force.
Justifications of the price of Bitcoin
The amount of Bitcoin is capped at around 21 million, some investors believe that its value is attributed to scarcity. The number of national fiat currencies is limited and the number of new variants of cryptocurrencies is unlimited. There are dozens of substitutes for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is just one of many cryptocurrencies. The supply of stigmatized property is limited but it does not make them worth more than ordinary properties.
Others attribute the value of Bitcoin to its cost price because of the power consumption required to "mine" it. Price is not equivalent to value. For example, if someone goes up a mountain and spends hours digging up a pile of garbage, there is an opportunity cost of time involved, but the result of the labor is not productive and therefore worthless.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange （CME） and the Chicago Board Options Exchange （CBOE） launched their own cash-settled futures trading products in December 2017. The move is seen by investors as an important milestone for global exchanges to add to Bitcoin holdings and introduce it into the mainstream financial world. Bitcoin futures has increased the general acceptability of Bitcoin. Rising trading volumes on both exchanges reflects investors' interest in Bitcoin futures. The price of bitcoin is supported by the official platform provided by the global exchanges. Investors can adjust their holdings when the price of Bitcoin fluctuates.
In addition, it is noteworthy that Bitcoin is of nominal value. For example, a branded handbag costs up to tens of thousands of ringgit, if the same craftsmen are hired to design the same handbag without the logo, the price will be vastly different. Setting aside the cost of raw materials and labor, why is a branded handbag at multiple times premium than its counterpart without brand? That is because the manufacturer passes the cost of advertisement (brand effect) pay hefty sum to influencers (celebrity effect) become brand ambassador to raise the nominal value of handbag. Similarly, the value of Bitcoin may be underpinned by its nominal value.
In the short term, investors tend to put their stakes on popular investment products and tend to fall prey to fallacies between price and value. Bear in mind that price is different from value. As Warren Buffett said, "Only when the tide goes out do you know who has been swimming naked." Every investor must understand the relevant investment products before making any investment decisions.
【作者】
▸庄太量教授
香港中文大学经济学系副教授，著有《人生炼金术的7大抉择》一书。
▸郑荣信
毕业于赛城多媒体大学经济学分析系，曾与大学教授在国际期刊共撰《投资者情绪如何影响大马股市》。热衷于研究行为经济学的理论和实践。在大马交易所开启金融职业生涯，现在一家证券行任职。
