迈向第16届全国大选之际，政治版图愈发呈现出选民对现状的广泛失望与不满。
随著团结政府（希盟—国阵）与国盟反对党同时面临内部纷争、改革议程淡化和消失，以及公众信任流失，一个政治真空正在形成，为来届大选中的第三势力创造空间。
以下是人民失望情绪如何为独立候选人与第三势力打开机会：
1.“妥协疲劳”
当前团结政府虽稳定，却不得不将联盟生存置于“烈火莫熄时代”所承诺的激进改革之上。
改革落差：对许多城市与自由派选民而言，制度性改革进展缓慢（如废除压制性法律、官联公司改革、金融与政治贪腐问题）已带来背叛感。乡区选民同样对贪腐案件增加、生活成本上升、收入停滞等经济问题感到失望。
契机：主打“廉洁与改革”为竞选纲领的第三势力或独立候选人，可能会赢得相当一部分选民的支持，这些选民认为当下朝野两大联盟在2022年选举中做出的承诺只不过是选举宣传。
2.传统联盟分裂
主要政治阵营内部摩擦达到高点：
希盟—国阵紧张关系：行动党与公正党之间的矛盾，加上部分巫统派系有意另起炉灶，预示来届大选选情混乱。森州近期风波不仅反映巫统内斗，也显示伊党与土团党的机会主义操作。伊党领袖迅速将相关动向诠释为“马来穆斯林团结”的回归，显示其有意与巫统重启国民和谐（Muafakat Nasional）。在森州政局动荡中，尽管仅掌握少数席位，国盟仍提出与巫统共组州政府，其目的显然在于永久瓦解希盟—国阵联盟。
反对党内耗：土团党与伊党未能提供具原则与有效治理的“绿潮”模式，以吸引更广泛的全国选民，而不仅仅是其马来/穆斯林支持者，反而陷入财务丑闻、领导危机与不断变化的联盟关系。
契机：在传统朝野对决的选区，选民幻灭与失望可能导致投票率下滑。一旦具公信力的第三势力候选人（如社会主义党、大马民主联合阵线、其他小党或来自公正党与土团的异议份子），若主打非种族与改革理念，将有机会突围，至少可摆脱以往第三势力“失按柜金”的标签。
3.“州本位”与本土意识崛起
近期州选（特别是沙巴）显示选民倾向地方主义。
叙事转变：“沙巴人的沙巴”或“砂拉越优先”不仅仅是对以联邦为中心的政治否定，更是对地方权益的重新主张。
契机：这为马来半岛的第三势力提供了蓝本，推动去中心化与区域议题，从而摆脱主导国家话语的“马来人对非马来人”二元对立。这也将为倡导恢复城市地区的地方政府选举提供机会。最终，这将有助于推动亟需的选区重新划分改革。这也可纠正以往政府透过违宪的选区划分，即带有种族倾向的划分不公，而赢得政权。
4.18岁首投族与青年变数
年轻选民仍是最难预测的群体。他们较少受传统政党忠诚的束缚，对生活成本问题较为敏感。
经济幻灭：由于中等收入陷阱和通货膨胀持续存在，年轻选民寻求的是技术官僚式与务实经济解决方案，而非意识形态的空谈。无论如何，许多人的思维模式和政治观点仍然受到种族和宗教偏见的影响。这正是第三势力候选人面临的劣势。然而，如果他们的候选人来自年轻一代，即使最终落败，他们也能帮助重塑国家的选举议程。
契机：一个专注于经济务实主义和数码化优先治理的第三势力，或许能够引起将希盟和国盟视为老派政治的年轻一代共鸣。独立的社媒意见领袖也可以协助扩散第三势力候选人的竞选纲领和理念。
第三势力的挑战
尽管机会存在，结构性障碍依然严峻：
简单多数制（FPTP）：这种制度有利于资源雄厚的大型联盟。独立候选人和第三势力政党往往最终只能分散选票，而无法赢得选举。小党应该意识到，它们在现有联盟之外比在联盟之内更有影响力。
财力：全国竞选需要大量资金来维持竞选机器运转，而独立候选人往往缺乏资金。一个可信的第三势力联盟应可吸引到寻求变革替代方案的公众给予资金支持。此外，这个第三势力阵营也可把许多非政府组织纳入，尤其那一些在改善国家社会经济方面所做的努力往往被忽视或冷落的非政府组织。
缺乏首相人选：马来西亚选民往往根据谁将领导国家来投票支持某个联盟。如果没有一位明确的全国领袖，第三势力将处于劣势。因此，若著名社运人士和年轻领袖可组成团队，将可成一个相当吸引人的选择。若再结合经济专家，或可抵消“缺乏经验”的质疑。
关键在于：要想在第16届全国大选中取得成功，第三势力必须超越“抗议票”角色。其需要建立一个由独立人士和小党派组成的松散但团结的联盟——一个新的人民联盟——从而提供一个具公信力的进步替代方案。
第三势力：大马政治与社会经济格局变革者
预计第16届全国大选将是一场分化的选举，甚至可能出现悬峙议会。在这种情况下，一个拥有8-12个席位小股力量的第三势力，或许能在关键议题上发挥远超其规模的积极作用，甚至成为潜在的“造王者”。例如，其可以支持一个致力于特定改革的联盟，如设独立委员会重新划分选区，或推动固定任期国会立法。
即便本文提出的这个松散联盟在即将到来的全国大选中未能赢得太多席位，其仍能对马来西亚的政治发展产生深远的影响。
这是因为其可以透过竞选宣言强调一个对维护和推进国家发展至关重要的关键立场，从而打破长期以来以种族和宗教为基础的政治格局，即：马来西亚现在是，而且必须继续保持为一个世俗国家。
林德宜《来届大选的第三势力》原文：The Third Force In Coming Election
Electoral Manifesto Priority: To Ensure That Malaysia Remains A Progressive And Secular State
The political landscape heading into General Election 16 is increasingly characterized by widespread voter disappointment and dissatisfaction with the status quo.
As the unity government (Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional) and the Perikatan Nasional (PN) opposition grapple with internal dissension, a missing or diluted reform agenda, and the loss of public confidence, a vacuum has opened for a third force in the coming General Election.
Here is how rakyaat disenchantment is providing an opening for independent candidates and third-party movements:
1. The "Compromise" Fatigue
The current Unity Government, while stable, has had to prioritize coalition survival over the radical reforms promised during the "Reformasi" era.
The Reform Gap: For many urban and liberal voters, the slow pace of systemic change (e.g., the repeal of restrictive laws, GLC reforms, financial and political corruption concerns) has created a sense of betrayal. Rural voters are equally disappointed with the growing number of corruption cases amidst rising cost of living, income stagnation and other economic pressures.
The Opportunity: Third party and independent candidates who run on an "Integrity and Reform" platform could capture a sizable chunk of voters who feel the 2022 electoral promises made by the two coalitions were simply electoral propaganda.
2. Fractured Traditional Coalitions
Internal friction within the main blocs is at an all-time high:
PH-BN Tensions: Strains between DAP and PKR, and the growing inclination of some UMNO factions to strike out on their own, signal a messy election. The latest imbroglio in Negri Sembilan is evidence not only of Umno internal friction but also of PAS and Bersatu opportunism. PAS leaders have quickly hailed the move as a return to "Malay-Muslim unity," signaling a readiness to revive the Muafakat Nasional spirit with UMNO. Despite holding only five seats, PN has offered to form a state government with UMNO, with the aim clearly to fracture the PH-BN alliance permanently.
Opposition Infighting: Far from providing the principled and effective ”green wave” governance that can appeal to a larger national electorate rather than just their Malay/Muslim supporters, Bersatu and PAS are now facing their own financial scandals, leadership questions and shifting alliances.
The Opening: In seats where there is the customary ruling and opposition battle, turnout for traditional parties could see sharp declines due to voter disillusionment and disenchantment. A credible third-party candidate (including those from Parti Socialist Malaysia, MUDA, current smaller parties and dissidents from PKR and Bersatu）espousing a non racial identity and reformist ideology could slip into political reckoning. At the very least, they should be able to avoid the “loss of deposit” stigma plaguing earlier third party candidates.
3. The Rise of "State-First" and “Local” Sentiments
Success in recent state elections (particularly in Sabah) shows that voters are gravitating toward localism.
The Narrative: The "Sabah for Sabahans" or "Sarawak First" sentiment is more than a rejection of federal-centric politics.
The Opening: This provides a blueprint for third forces in Peninsular Malaysia to champion decentralization and regional issues, moving away from the Malay vs. Non-Malay binary that dominates national discourse. It would also provide an opportunity to advocate the return of local government elections in urban areas. Finally it would also help bring about the long needed reform in constituency redelineation This will correct the racial gerrymandering with which earlier governments were able to win power through unconstitutional malapportionment.
4. The "Undi18" and Youth Factor
The youth vote remains the most unpredictable demographic. They are less bound by historical party loyalty and more sensitive to cost-of-living issues.
Economic Disillusionment: With the middle-income trap and inflation persisting, younger voters are looking for technocratic and economic pragmatic solutions rather than ideological rhetoric. Many will still be having mindsets and political views shaped by racial and religious bias. This is where third party candidates could face a disadvantage. However, if their candidates are from the younger generation, they can help reshape the electoral agenda for the country even if they end up on the losing side.
The Opening: A third force that focuses strictly on economic pragmatism and digital-first governance could resonate with a generation that views both PH and PN as old guard politicians. Independent social media influencers can help spread the electoral manifesto and agenda of third force candidates.
Challenges to the Third Force
While the opening exists, the structural barriers remain formidable:
The First-Past-The-Post System: This system favors large, resource-rich coalitions. Independent candidates and third force parties often end up splitting the vote rather than winning. The smaller parties should realize that they will be more effective outside rather than within the existing coalitions.
Financial Muscle: National campaigns require considerable funding for machinery which independent candidates lack. A credible third force grouping should be able to attract funding from a public looking for alternatives that can help bring the change they want their children to inherit. Also on the side of third force entry will be many NGOs, ignored or snubbed in their efforts to better the country’s socio-economy.
Lack of a "Prime Minister" Face: Malaysians often vote for a coalition based on who will lead the country. A third force may appear handicapped without a clear, nationwide leadership figure. However a small united group of prominent activists and younger leaders can serve as an attractive alternative. Pairing younger leaders with seasoned activists and economic experts can counter the "inexperience" narrative.
The Bottom Line: For a third force to succeed in GE16, it must move beyond being a "protest vote." It needs to form a loose but cohesive alliance of independents and small parties - a new Himpunan Rakyat - that provides a credible progressive alternative.
Third Force As A Gamechanger In Malaysian Politics And Socioeconomics
GE16 is predicted to be a fragmented election, possibly resulting in a hung Parliament. In this scenario, a small third force with 8-12 seats could punch far above its weight as a positive disruptor on critical issues as well as become a potential kingmaker. It could, for example, express its support for a coalition that commits to specific reforms, such as an Independent Boundaries Commission for redelineation or fixed-term parliament legislation.
Even if the loose alliance proposed here does not win many seats in the coming GE, it can leave an indelible impact on the country's political development.
This is because it can disrupt the long-standing ethnic-based and religious paradigm by emphasising through its electoral manifesto the key and fundamental position that is crucial for safeguarding and advancing the nation’s progress: this is that Malaysia is, and must remain, a secular state.
本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。
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