那些关注美国共和党总统选举提名的人会注意到，在美国民众对国家事务关注中，外交事务最不受关注或排名最低。在最近结束的爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州提名战之前，各项民调显示，主要竞选者的支持者中，不到10%人将外交政策列为主要关注点。
毫无意外，对本土事项，如经济、就业、生活成本和通货膨胀的关注，才是共和党和民主党支持者优先关注的事项。11月总统选举中被视为关键选民的年轻选民，他们更关注的是课题而不是候选人。
为何美国选民的注意力集中在国内相关课题，而不是在现任总统拜登与美国军事工业复合体（军事-工业-媒体）主导下的国际秩序与地位，这是不难令人理解的。
一般美国人——过去15年，尤其是拜登执政期间见证了他们的日常生活被一系列问题困扰和消耗，如移民、堕胎、城市犯罪、种族偏见、觉醒主义、LGBTQ+、文化斗争、芬太尼和阿片类相关药物成瘾问题。还有一系列无法解决且永无止境的经济问题。这些坏消息占据了头条新闻和媒体报导，再加上越来越多关于特朗普涉及商业交易并试图影响上一届选举结果的法庭案件报道。当然，还有较少受关注的，拜登涉嫌腐败和其儿子的法庭案件。
在政治方面，许多美国人和外国分析家认为，美国民主衰退至少已经有十年了。据《经济学人》报道，美国如今不属于“完全民主国家”，而是属于“有缺陷的民主国家”
（例如希腊、以色列、波兰和巴西）。
世界将看到，美国大选后，美国政治将继续分化，而美国领导人依然无法处理和解决国家现有的社会经济和政治问题，这情况将持续很长一段时间。
特朗普和拜登这两个可能的总统候选人都没有受到大多数美国民众的好评。人们普遍认为两人都太老了而且不值得信任。两人均未能让国人对他们领导美国应对国内外挑战持有信心。
根据民调机构皮尤斯于2023年4月的一项民意调查，更多的美国人对国家未来在以下几个方面持悲观态度，其中前两者，多数受访者表示悲观：
● 道德和伦理水平（63%）
● 教育体系（59%）
● 确保所有族群都获平等对待（44%）
● 美国与世界各国相处的能力（41%）
● 婚姻与家庭制度（40%）
鉴于目前美国社会的混乱和其倡议的空洞民主与人权，2024年选举的结果能否改变美国的外交政策，以及改变美国同时扮演著法官、陪审团、警察角色，一手所确立的全球国际秩序？
未来美国外交政策
尽管，事实上大多数——绝大多数——美国人希望他们的总统优先关注国内根深蒂固的问题，我们看到拜登在上台后提出了“美国回来了”口号，强调他的使命是重振美国的世界领导地位。
随著国内问题日益严重，拜登把美国外交转向低调路线，以及依赖美国在欧洲和太平洋地区盟友支持，维护美国的全球霸权。这种低调的作风部分原因也是因为财政资源减少。拜登政府的2023年财政预算为1.695兆美元赤字/约8兆令吉。这是美国史上第三大赤字。美国政府只在2020年和2021年新冠疫情期间，才出现如此庞大的赤字。
如果特朗普击败拜登，美国外交政策依然可预测会是走低调、不冒进、鸽派的路线。特朗普若中选，其第二个任期很可能会推行更孤立主义的政策。根据一份从现任和前任外交官和助理的回馈报告显示，选举结果将使特朗普能够彻底改变美国在乌克兰、中东和与中国贸易战等议题上的立场。
无论谁赢得2024年总统选举，美国在亚洲、欧洲和中东的盟友，都需在外交政策上做好面对新世界秩序准备，在美国优先关注国内问题下，将会有另一种美国强权之下的世界安定与和平。这也将看到美国盟国的利益被边缘化、遭排挤或牺牲。美国优越论依然会在世界横行挑起战争，但为这买单和牺牲的却是美国盟友的财政部和机构。
即将到来的美国总统选举，主要输家可能包括以下几个国家／地区：
澳洲
日本
台湾
菲律宾
乌克兰
英国
欧盟国家
以色列
美国混乱局面下的可能赢家，将是倡导新国际体系，一个致力于建立更包容和平等的全球治理体系的金砖国家集团。从长远来看，推进一个能更准确地反映发展中国家追求和抱负的多极世界秩序，可能反而有助美国在国内外取得更进步和建设性的成果。当然，西方军工复合体肯定会反对这一点，但我们正处于时代的路口，旧规则、旧基准和分析工具已不起作用。
林德宜《拜登vs特朗普：新世界秩序即将到来》原文：Biden Vs Trump 2024: New World Order Coming
Those following the U.S. Republican presidential race will have noted that the issue of foreign affairs ranks amongst the lowest or is the lowest of the priority concerns that the American public sees as critical to themselves and their country. A variety of polls held before the recently concluded nomination battles in Iowa and New Hampshire revealed that less than 10% of the supporters of the main candidates identified foreign policy as their major concern.
Not surprisingly, domestic concerns related to the economy, jobs, cost of living and inflation rank highest for Republican and Democratic Party supporters. Young voters who may be the key deciding group on Election Day, November are expected to focus on issues rather than candidates.
Why US voters' attention is focused on domestic issues related rather than the state of the international order that incumbent President Biden and the US dominated MIM (military-industrial-media) complex would like to see be dominant in the minds of the American and international public is not difficult to understand.
American Society and Politics in Disarray
Ordinary Americans - over the past 15 years and especially during Biden’s administration-have seen their everyday lives intruded upon and consumed by differences over immigration, abortion, crime in cities, racial bigotry, woke ideology, LGBTQ+, culture fights, fentanyl and opioid related addiction concerns. Also a related range of economic issues appear unresolvable and never ending. The bad news on these dominate the headlines and media coverage together with increasing news reports on the court cases against Trump for his business dealings and attempt to reverse the previous election result. Less in the spotlight is Biden’s alleged corruption and son’s court cases.
On the political front, the US is seen by many American and foreign analysts to have been in democratic decline for at least 10 years now. According to the Economist, the United States now ranks not among the world’s “full democracies” but among the “flawed democracies” (such as Greece, Israel, Poland, and Brazil).
It is likely that the US political division that the world sees and the inability of America’s leaders to tackle and resolve the country’s existential socio-economic and political problems will continue long after this election outcome.
Neither likely presidential contenders, Trump or Biden, are well regarded by the majority of the American public. Both are widely seen as too old and untrustworthy. Both have failed to inspire confidence in handling the myriad challenges on the domestic and international front that the US faces.
According to a recent Pews poll in April 2023, more Americans were very or somewhat pessimistic of the nation’s future in the following areas, with the first two areas having a majority of respondents expressing pessimism:
● Moral and ethical standards (63%)
● System of education (59%)
● Ability to ensure racial equality for all people (44%)
● Ability of the U.S. to get along with other countries of the world (41%)
● Institution of marriage and family (40%)
Given the current disorder in American society and the hollowness of its advocacy of democracy and human rights, can the outcome of the 2024 election bring about change in US foreign policy and the global international order in which the US has set itself up as judge, jury, policeman and sheriff?
U.S.Foreign Policy Going Forward Impact
Despite the fact that the majority - great majority - of Americans want their president to prioritise the deep seated domestic problems of the country, we have seen Biden start off his current administration with the tagline “America is back” to emphasise that his mission is to reassert American leadership of the world.
As his domestic problems have multiplied, Biden has retreated to a lower profile foreign policy for the US and a reliance on American allies in Europe and the Pacific to pay the bill to support American hegemony and fly the US flag. This lower profile role is also in part driven by diminishing financial resources. The Biden administration ran a $1.695 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023. It was the third-largest deficit in US history. The only time the US government ran bigger deficits was during the COVID years of 2020 and 2021.
An even lower profile, less adventurous, more dovish US foreign policy execution can also be expected of Trump should he defeat Biden. Trump’s second term is likely to see him pursue more isolationist policies. According to a report drawing on feedback from a large group of current and former aides and diplomats, the election result would enable Trump to make sweeping changes to the U.S. stance on issues ranging from the Ukraine and Middle East wars to trade with China.
Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election, the allies and deputy sheriffs of American foreign policy in Asia, Europe and the Middle East will need to prepare for the reality of a new world order in which the urgency of taking on America First domestic concerns will see a different Pax Americana emerge. It will also see the interests and concerns of allied countries sidelined, marginalised or sacrificed. American exceptionalism in waging wars around the world may continue but it is the Treasury and bodies of U.S. allies that will be sacrificed to support it
Australia A Major Loser
Among the major losers of the coming U.S. presidential election could be the following countries：
Australia
Japan
Taiwan
Philippines
Ukraine
United Kingdom
European Union countries
Israel
Likely winners of the U.S. disorder will be the group of BRICS advocating a new international order based on a system of global governance that is more inclusive and egalitarian.
The advance of a multipolar world order that more accurately represents the objectives and ambitions of developing nations could, in the long run, paradoxically help the U.S. towards more progressive and constructive outcomes at home and abroad.
The Western MIM will resist this but we are at a time in history when the old rules, benchmarks and tools of analysis do not work.
