贸易战没有赢家，与世界为敌只会自我孤立─中国国家主席习近平
对于美国总统特朗普向全世界发动的关税战，市场分析家和媒体评论员最大的关注是：谁会先退缩？特朗普还是习近平？
这是因为，特朗普虽然宣布给于早前在4月2日公布征收对等关税的180多个国家90天暂缓期，却将中国排除在外。反之，他加大了对中国关税攻势，并于4月9日将中国进口商品的关税税率提高至145%。中国立即回应，将对美国进口商品的关税税率提高至125%。
伴随著两国关税战的口水战中，特朗普及其官员一再强调，他们预期中国将效法其他国家，屈服于美国的要求，中国不得不接受谈判达成的关税协议。
这个协议将确保美国占上风，并让特朗普宣布胜利纠正关税的“不公正”，他声称美国前几届政府执政期间一直是关税“不公正”的受害者。
特朗普如何看待世界各国反应
在一次又一次的演讲中，特朗普向美国民众重复著一种不利外交却非常有效的辩护说词，以证明其发动全球关税战合理性。这场关税战对世界各地股市和金融市场带来冲击，更让普通美国人因随之而来的生活成本高涨和企业不可避免的影响，而让他们感到恐慌。
“我（特朗普）告诉你，这些国家正在给我们打电话，拍我的马屁。他们就是这样。他们渴望与美国达成协议。”
他嘲讽外国领导人对美国关税的求情，并戏仿说：
“总统先生，求求你，行个方便吧。什么条件都可谈。我都可接受，总统先生！”
对于中方的回应，特朗普也一直坚持自己的期待。
特朗普在白宫的一场活动中表示：“中国希望达成协议。他们只是不知道该如何做。”
“你知道，这是他们不太了解的事情之一——他们是骄傲的人。”
特朗普也向习近平发出讯息，表明尽管关税战会使美国成为赢家，但美国也会做出让步，特朗普在白宫总统办公室上对记者说：“习近平是个聪明人，我们最终会达成一项非常好的协议。习近平非常清楚该做什么，他热爱自己的国家。我们会在某个时候通电话，然后就开始谈判。”
中国对特朗普提议回应
然而，中国不仅没有致电美国，特朗普早前公开表达对习近平的钦佩也没有起到任何作用，中国已明确表明准备在关税战中“奉陪到底”。
依据中国财政部表示：“美方对华征收过高关税，严重违反国际经贸规则，违反基本经济原则和常识，完全是单边霸凌和胁迫行为”。
目前，中国采取结合了反对、外交手段和报复措施的反应。
以下是迄今为止中国采取的反击行动
● 报复性关税：中国官员称美国的关税行动是一项没有实际经济意义“数字游戏”，正在成为一个“笑话”。
同时，中国采取报复性关税措施，特别针对美国中西部和南部的农村地区产品，这些地区是特朗普及其共和党的关键选区。受中国关税影响的美国重要产业还包括航空业和制造业，以及特朗普政策所青睐的石油、天然气和煤炭产业。
中国最新举措是暂停稀土和磁铁出口，这对全球半导体、高科技、航空航太和军事工业都是至关重要的 ，并可能成为关税战的转捩点。
● 强调多边主义：中国强调对开放和自由市场以及多边主义的承诺；并作为全球贸易体系的捍卫者。此外，中国在向世界贸易组织投诉，挑战美国关税的合法性之际，中国也致力于与欧盟和东盟等其他主要全球贸易伙伴建立联盟并加强贸易关系。
中国国家主席习近平对越南、柬埔寨和马来西亚的访问将增强东盟抵制美国对小国单方面霸凌和胁迫的力量。
● 经济和战略转变：中国媒体和官员强调自力更生，政府加速国内关键商品的生产和消费，减少对美国市场的依赖，通过南方国家和金砖国组织实现市场多元化。
结论
大多数西方分析家和媒体评论员认为，在这场两大全球贸易巨头的关税战中，美国会是先退缩者。这是因为，尽管美国作为中国的主要出口目的地，也是关键的贸易伙伴，但中国是美国更为重要的贸易伙伴，为美国普通家庭提供各种日常用品，使他们能够享受舒适且负担得起的生活方式。
最新进展已显示了特朗普先退让，即美国取消了主要针对中国进口产品的关税，这包括了电脑、笔记型电脑、磁碟机和数据处理器等20个产品类别。这也包括半导体装置、设备、记忆体晶片和平板显示器。这些都是对美国消费者来说很重要的日常用品，因为他们无法从世界各地包括美国本土获得同等价格的类似产品，而美国企业无论大小，其盈亏都依赖于中国的投资和工厂。
特朗普及其团队必须面对现实，如果关税战继续下去，最终赢家将取决于哪个国家能够承受更大的痛苦。中立评论人一致认为，中国将是这一大国。
林德宜《特朗普与习近平：谁先退缩？》原文：Trump Vs Xi: Who Has Blinked First?
There are no winners in a trade war, and going against the world will only lead to self-isolation
China President Xi Jinping
Until Friday April 11, the big question for market analysts and media commentators in the tariff war that U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed on the world was: who will blink first,Trump or President Xi Jinping?
This was because Trump, whilst calling for a 90 day pause to the reciprocal tariffs on the over 18 0 countries that he announced on 2 April, had targeted China to be left out of the pause period. He also escalated the tariff attack by raising the rate on Chinese imported goods to 145% on April 9. In an immediate response, China increased its tariff rate on U.S.imports to 125%.
In the war of words accompanying the tariff war between the two countries, Trump and his officials have repeatedly emphasised that they expect China to follow other countries by bending its knee to the U.S. demands and having to accede to a negotiated tariff deal.
Such a deal would ensure that the U.S. has the upper hand and allow Trump to proclaimvictory in correcting the tariff ‘injustices’ which he claims the U. S. has been a victim of during earlier administrations.
How Trump Views His Tariff War on World Leaders
In speech after speech, Trump has repeated a not very diplomatic but very effective line of defense to his American audience to justify his launch of the global tariff war that has upended share and financial markets around the world and spooked ordinary Americans by its inevitable impact on their cost of living and businesses.
“I’m telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass. They are. They are dying to make a deal.”
Mocking the pleas of foreign leaders, he parodied:
“Please, please, sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything. I’ll do anything, sir!”
On China’s response, Trump has also been insistent on his expectations.
“China wants to make a deal. They just don’t know how quite to go about it,” Trump said during an event at the White House.
“You know, it’s one of those things they don’t know quite – They’re proud people.”
And signalling Xi on a deal that whilst making the U.S. the winner in his tariff war would provide some concessions to China, he told reporters in the Oval Office: "Xi is a smart guy and we'll end up making a very good deal. Xi is a man who knows exactly what has to be done, he loves his country. We will get a phone call at some point and then it's off to the races, "
China Response to Trump Overtures
Not only has the phone call not come through, Trump's public assertions of admiration for Xi have also failed to have any effect with China making it clear that it is prepared to "fight to the end" in the tariff war.
According to China’s Ministry of Finance: "The U.S. side's imposition of excessively high tariffs on China seriously violates international economic and trade rules, runs counter to basic economic principles and common sense, and is simply an act of unilateral bullying and coercion".
For now, China has responded with a combination of opposition, diplomatic efforts and retaliatory measures.
Here's a breakdown of the Chinese retaliation to date
● Retaliatory Tariffs: Chinese officials have described the US tariff actions as a "numbers game" that has no real economic meaning, and that it is becoming a "joke".
At the same time, China has retaliated with tariffs especially targeting American rural communities in the midwest and south that are key electoral support groups for Trump and his Republican party. Significant US sectors also affected by Chinese tariffs include the aeronautical and manufacturing industry and Trump’s “drill, baby drill” favoured oil, gas and coal industries.
The latest China move to suspend exports of rare earth minerals and magnets crucial for the world’s semiconductor, high tech,
aerospace and military industries has the potential to be a game changer in the tariff war.
● Emphasis on Multilateralism: China has emphasized its commitment to open and free markets and multilateralism; and as a defender of the global trading system. Together with complaints lodged with the World Trade Organization challenging the legality of
U.S. tariffs, it has worked to build alliances and strengthen trade relationships with other key global trading blocs, including the European Union and ASEAN.
President Xi’s trip to Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia can be expected to strengthen ASEAN’s resistance to U.S. unilateral bullying and coercion of smaller countries.
● Economic and Strategic Shift: Chinese media and officials have emphasized self-reliance, with the government accelerating domestic production and consumption of critical goods, reduced dependency on the American market and diversification to
global South and BRICS countries.
Conclusion
Most western analysts and media commentators have conceded that U.S. has blinked first in this war between the two global trading giants. This is because while the US remains a key trading partner for China as a major export destination, China is an even more important trading partner for the U.S. in supplying the wide range of everyday products that provide the average American family with a comfortable and affordable lifestyle.
The latest development to emphasize that Trump has blinked first is the relaxation of the tariff imposition on mainly China imported products covering 20 product categories, including computers, laptops, disc drives and automatic data processing. It also includes semiconductor devices, equipment, memory chips and flat panel displays. All are everyday products important to American consumers who are lacking access to equivalent affordable products from anywhere in the world, including from the U.S. and the U.S.businesses - small and large - dependent on their China investments and factories for their profits and bottom line.
The reality which Trump and his team have to deal with is that should the tariff war continue, it will boil down to which country can withstand the pain more. Independent commentators are unanimous in agreement that it will be China.
要看最快最熱資訊，請來Follow我們 《東方日報》WhatsApp Channel.
