美国总统特朗普兑现了他的竞选承诺，向全世界发射了关税“炮火”，以使美国再次伟大。
特朗普动用很少使用的总统条款《国际紧急状态经济权力法》（IEEPA），于4月2日实施了官方公告所称的“为增强美国竞争优势，保护美国的主权，加强美国的国家和经济安全的国家紧急状态。”
关税目标细分
此次美国实施的关税对象包括了183个国家和地区。受影响的国家或地区包括中国、日本、印度、韩国、台湾、欧盟国家、英国、瑞士和澳洲等全球贸易的主要参与者。
其中还包括来自全球南方、特别是亚洲的小国，这些国家受益于出口导向发展，但几乎所有这些国家都面临著其出口到美国的产品被征10%基准关税。
在非洲，有著世界上最贫穷的国家，因此美国于2000年起实施《非洲成长与机会法案》（AGOA）允许非洲国家免税向美国出口，但如今该法案已失效。
少数国家因早先的制裁而被排除在此次关税名单外。其中包括俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、古巴和朝鲜。加拿大和墨西哥虽然没有被列入4月2日的名单，但根据先前的指令，这两个国家已被征收更高的关税。
股市繁荣即将来临？
特朗普所说的“经济革命”，其影响是惊人的，自他就职总统以来，美国和世界股市的损失已达到数兆美元。道琼工业指数周一下午收于3万7965点，低于2024年12月创下的4万5000多点的历史高点。
股市大跌让分析师和投资者感到震惊，他们希望从全球市场的混乱和崩溃中得到一些指点，但白宫贸易和制造业高级顾问彼得纳瓦罗淡化股市大跌的言行并不能让他们感到安慰。纳瓦罗说“市场很快就会触底，然后我们就会迎来牛市繁荣。”
纳瓦罗更预“道琼斯指数将在特朗普任期内达到5万点，而标准普尔500指数将出现强力的反弹”。
不幸的是，没人可质问这位高级顾问他所预测的道琼斯指数繁荣何时会实现。特朗普的任期将于2028年11月结束，如果特朗普决定继续第三任期（他并未排除这一可能），则特朗普可在位到2032年。未来几个月和几年，全球经济很可能会陷入在美国开启下的长期衰退。
对东盟国家影响
除了股市低迷之外，东盟还必须应对这样一个事实：在世界各贸易集团和地区中，东盟成员国是受特朗普关税战打击最严重的国家。
在东盟国家中，受影响最严重的是柬埔寨、寮国、越南和缅甸。所有产品均被征收超过40%的关税，这一关税税率位居世界最高之列。东南亚地区只有最亲美的国家，菲律宾和新加坡没受重罚，两国关税率不到20%。
美国对东盟成员国关税
印尼外交部4月4日在官方声明中对美国关税作出回应，“考虑到东盟10国均受到美国加征关税的影响，印尼已与东盟主席国马来西亚进行沟通，将采取联合措施”。
马来西亚首相，作为东盟主席国也回应称，“将努力协调，为东盟寻找统一共识，维护开放和有弹性的供应链，确保东盟的集体声音在国际舞台上得到清晰和坚定的回应”。
首相安华可能面对著一项不可能的任务。即使达成共识（这看起来不太可能），任何联合措施或统一战线都需要花费大量时间和精力来组织。尤其在小马科斯领导下的菲律宾已把所有鸡蛋都放在了美国篮子里，而新加坡也可能不愿意加入统一战线，担心这会危及目前与美国的关系。
东盟国家会屈服还是反击
越南可能是受影响最严重的东盟国家，该国似乎已屈服，希望美国大幅降低关税税率。
事实上，在新的关税税率正式公布之前，越南已经削减了多项关税，向美国让步，同时承诺购买更多美国商品，包括飞机和农产品。
越南和美国的企业都认为新关税税率“高得惊人”，并要求特朗普政府推迟对越南商品征收46%的关税，指该关税将损害两国双边商贸关系。
报导指，当日本首相石破茂正焦急地等待接通与特朗普通电商谈关税之际，越南领导人、越南共产党总书记苏林已与特朗普通电话讨论此事，这表明越南可能获得关税折扣。特朗普称与苏林的通话“非常富有成效”，这引发了人们的预期，即特朗普的交易方式可能允许通过谈判和对美国的进一步让步，而降低越南关税。
其他东盟成员国会对这种屈服方式有所保留，因为考虑到特朗普过往倾向于公关表演、撒谎和不兑现承诺，屈服方式可能不会带来太多积极的结果。
更具战略方法是观察欧盟对特朗普关税的报复回应后的结果，并与欧盟合作采取有针对性的反制措施。
东盟也应与印太地区和全球南方国家合作，以应对美国的保护主义，推动世界贸易组织改革；并要求恢复特朗普经济革命下试图摧毁的基于规则的经济和贸易秩序。
当面对霸凌时，避免个人屈膝，而要以集体反应进行反击。
林德宜《东盟如何反击特朗普关税》原文：How ASEAN Can Fight Back Against Trump Tariff Bazooka
My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day – waiting for a long time.
For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far
U.S.President Donald Trump, April 2, 2025
True to his election promises, Trump has unleashed his tariff bazooka on the world to make America great again.
Using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a rarely used presidential provision, the U.S. president imposed what the official announcement declares as a “National Emergency to Increase our Competitive Edge, Protect our Sovereignty, and Strengthen our National and Economic Security” on April 2.
Breakdown of the Tariff Bazooka Targets
The reciprocal tariffs unleashed apply to 183 countries and territories. Countries affected include key players in global trade such as China, Japan, India, South Korea, Taiwan, European Union (EU) countries, United Kingdom, Switzerland and Australia.
They also include small nations from the global South, especially from Asia, that have benefitted from export oriented development with virtually all of them facing a much higher imposition of the baseline 10% tariff on their US exports.
In Africa, where some of the poorest countries in the world are found, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) operating since 2000 that enabled African countries to export duty free to the US is now as good as dead.
A small number of countries have been excluded due to earlier sanctions. They include Russia, Belarus, Cuba and North Korea. Canada and Mexico, though missing from the April 2 list, have had new higher tariffs imposed under prior orders.
Coming Stock Market Boom?
The impact of what Trump now refers to as his “economic revolution” has been staggering with U.S. and world share market losses running into double digit trillion dollars since his inauguration. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 37,965 on Monday afternoon, down from an all-time high of more than 45,000 in December 2024.
Shell shocked analysts and investors in the share market bloodbath looking for some relief from the havoc and melt down in markets round the world will not be comforted by White House Senior Counselor for trade and manufacturing, Peter Navarro’s, downplaying the stock market falls. “The market will find a bottom. It will be soon and from there we’re going to have a bullish boom".
Navarro went on to predict that "the Dow is going to hit 50,000 during Trump’s term" and the S&P 500 is going to have a very broad-based recovery".
Unfortunately the fortune teller senior adviser was not asked when his predicted Dow boom was going to be realized. Trump's term of office ends in November 2028 or as late as 2032 should Trump decide on the third term that he has not ruled out. The next few months and years could well see the global economy enter into a prolonged recession led by the U.S.
Impact on ASEAN Countries
Besides the downturn in share markets, Association of Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN) are having to deal with the fact that among trading blocs and regions in the world, its member countries are the hardest hit by Trump's tariff war.
Within ASEAN, the worst affected are Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar. All are being hit with over 40% tariffs that are amongst the highest in the world. Only Philippines and Singapore, the most pro American countries in the region, have gotten off lightly with less than 20% tariff imposition.
U.S. Tariffs On ASEAN Member States
In a response on April 4, Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in an official statement said that “Indonesia has communicated with Malaysia as the ASEAN Chair to take joint measures considering that all 10 ASEAN countries are affected by the imposition of U.S. tariffs”.
On its part, the Malaysian Prime Minister, as ASEAN chair, has responded that he “will continue to coordinate efforts to present a united regional front, maintain open and resilient supply chains and ensure that ASEAN’s collective voice is heard clearly and firmly on the international stage.”
PM Anwar may have a mission impossible ahead. Any joint steps or united front will take considerable time and effort to organize even if there is consensus which appears highly unlikely. The Philippines under Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has put all its eggs into the U.S. basket whilst Singapore may be reluctant to join a united front fearing it could endanger its current relationship with the U.S.
Will ASEAN countries Bend Their Knees Or Fight Back
Vietnam, possibly the most badly affected ASEAN country, appears to have bent its knee in the hope of securing a substantial reduction in the tariff rate.
In fact, even before the actual announcement of the new tariff rates, Vietnam had cut several duties as its concession to the U.S., while pledging to buy more American goods including planes and agriculture products.
Describing the new tariff as “shockingly high”, Vietnamese and American businesses have requested the Trump administration to delay the 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods, saying the levy will hurt them and bilateral commercial relations.
An indication that Vietnam may be able to get a discounted rate is the news that Vietnam’s leader, To Lam, General Secretary of the country's Communist Party, was able to get an early phone call to Trump to discuss the matter, ahead of Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba who is anxiously awaiting for his turn to get his call through. Lam's call, described by Trump as “very productive”, has raised expectations that Trump's transactional approach might permit a lowering of the announced Vietnam tariffs through negotiations and further concessions to the U.S.
Other ASEAN member states will have reservations with a supplicatory approach which may not bring much positive outcome given Trump’s proclivity to engage in public relations statements, falsehoods and unfulfilled promises.
The more strategic approach would be to await the outcome of the EU retaliatory united front response to Trump’s tariffs and to work with the EU in targeted counter measures.
ASEAN should also work with Indo-Pacific and global South countries to tackle US protectionism and push for World Trade Organization reform; and for a return to the rules-based economic and trade order which Trump’s economic revolution is seeking to destroy.
Avoid being drawn into individualized knee bending when confronted by a bully and fight back with a collective response.
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