美国总统特朗普在华盛顿举行的共和党全国国会委员会晚宴上发表演讲时表示:“我告诉你们,世界各国正(因美国关税)在给我们打电话,拍我的马屁。”

“他们迫切地想达成协议。”他模仿一位外国领导人的恳求说:“总统先生,求求你,达成协议吧。我愿意妥协,总统先生……”

特朗普第二任期才刚开始100天,他就深陷在“让美国再次伟大”使命的多条战线上。在关键的国内战线,他遭遇了一次又一次的抗拒,并在关键领域遭遇了强烈的反对。

移民
特朗普政府在加强移民执法和试图实行选择性驱逐的政策上,遭到了强烈的法律挑战和反对。批评者认为这些政策反民主、具歧视性、不人道且无效。

社会政策
特朗普在LGBTQ+权利,特别是跨性别者权利的处理上,成为了新闻焦点,并似乎获得了较广泛的支持,尽管这些政策也面临法律挑战和公众抗议。与此同时,堕胎问题依然高度分裂,各州对限制堕胎的法律持续进行激烈的法律斗争。

医疗保健
废除和取代《平价医疗法案》(奥巴马医改)的行动引发了广泛抗议和法律抗争,关于医疗保健的可及性、对已有病症患者的保障,以及政府在医疗保健中角色之争议仍在继续。

环境
特朗普几乎凭一己之力摧毁了美国作为解决和缓解全球环境危机的有影响力参与者和利益相关者声誉。他宣布退出《巴黎气候协定》、推动“拚命钻油”口号、加快化石燃料开采准证发放、降低排放报告要求以及一系列其他反绿色举措都引起了民众的抗议,也遭到几乎整个科学界、以及多个州和地方政府的谴责与抵制。

政府效率
特朗普较快取得成效的领域,是他透过一连串行政命令与政策转向,推动政府去管制化的议程。

然而,即使在这方面,成果也未如预期的那般显著。为了削减联邦开支、精简官僚体系并简化采购流程,他成立了“政府效率部”(简称DOGE)。该部门确实监督了一些文官裁员、取消若干机构,并撤销了拜登时期的一些法规,包括与环境与医疗相关的政策。但其原本要节省1兆美元联邦预算的使命目标,现根据领导政府效率部的埃隆马斯克的最新消息,已把目标大幅下调至1500亿美元。

“让美国再次伟大”国内议程挑战

令人不安的是,特朗普在未来几个月内,甚至可能直到其现任政府于2028年结束之前,在推进其“让美国再次伟大”议程方面的前景看起来相当黯淡。

首先,他低估了法律和宪法方面的挑战,这些挑战几乎在他试图进行政策改革和变革的每一个议题和领域中,带来了严厉的法律和公众审查,并使其在执行上面对拖延。

尽管美国最高法院的大多数成员被视为倾向保守派,但特朗普不能对提交至该院的案件指望自动获得支持。这是因为美国宪法对总统权力有所限制。

此外,越来越多人开始质疑总统权力的界限,以及总统是否能凌驾于国会的权力之上。

同时,我们看到下级司法机构在审查法律和行政行为是否符合宪法方面发挥著至关重要的作用。这为特朗普部分行政命令和政策的反对者带来了胜利。他们成功阻止涉及多项旅行禁令和边境安全措施命令,理由是这些命令违反了正当程序和平等保护的原则。

对特朗普来说,更糟糕的是,他无法向反对党推销任何关键的国内改革议程。不仅难获跨党合作,共和党和民主党之间的政治两极化也进一步加剧。

这也导致未能就具争议课题找到立法的共识。共和党在参众两院都只握有微弱多数,这意味著每项重大立法提案都会陷入僵局,导致政策停滞、施政拖延,整体上更产生一种令人感觉到政治停滞甚至倒退的疲弱感。

特朗普在推动其国内议程、实现其让美国再次伟大的愿景时,面临著的最大障碍,是一个遍布美国各地社运人士与组织构成的网络。他们针对各项政策议题发起抗议,并致力于捍卫他们所认为正遭特朗普政府侵蚀的核心美国价值、民主规范与制度。

尽管这场仍在发展中的草根运动面对劣势与困难,但仍成功地发起了强有力的动员,并提升了政治意识与参与度,尤其是在年轻世代之间。

外交是MAGA彻底破灭最后一击?

讽刺的是,压垮特朗普“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)议程的最后一根钉子,极可能来自他的外交政策。目前,特朗普将重点放在对中国征收关税,这项政策已对广泛的美国家庭与企业造成实质伤害。这种损失与痛苦正由支持特朗普的选民群体承担,最终可能在下一轮选举中导致共和党的倒退与失利。

“我总说,‘关税’是我字典里最美的词,”特朗普在一月就职后数小时的集会上表示。“因为关税会让我们变得非常富有。”

这句“非常富有”的宣言,很可能成为特朗普所说过最浮夸、最怪诞、却也最具讽刺意味的话之一,一语成谶地动摇了他的政府,也重塑了他在美国历史中的地位。

东盟和中国能助特朗普翻身?

随著特朗普在国内的支持率民调暴跌,他迫切希望在外交政策上取得突破。由于他的乌克兰和平倡议看起来越来越难以成功,他急需要与其他外国领导人就对等征收关税达成协议,以提升他的公众形象。

由于中国立场坚定,他的顾问们显然会寻求与“财力有限”的东盟达成协议。同时,在习近平访问该地区后,特朗普表达了关注,认为这地区正在“想方设法算计美国国”。

但世界上大多数人看到的是,美国一直在自取灭亡。

与此同时,特朗普仍在等待习近平接听他的电话,并达成一项能让他在政治上挽回颜面的交易。

林德宜《特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”正在崩塌》原文:Trump’s MAGA Now Collapsing

“I am telling you, these countries are calling us up,kissing my ass,” Trump said during a speech at the National Republican Congressional Committee Dinner in Washington

“They are dying to make a deal. 'Please, please sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything sir,” he imitated a begging foreign leader

Barely 100 days into his new term, Trump is deeply embroiled in battles on multiple fronts in his MAGA mission. In the critical domestic battleground, he has met with rebuff after rebuff and significant opposition across key areas.

Immigration
Trump administration policies on stricter immigration enforcement and attempts at selective deportation have faced strong legal challenge and opposition from those who argue they are anti democratic, discriminatory,inhumane and ineffective.

Social Policies
Very much in the news and receiving what appears to be wider support is his handling of LGBTQ+ rights, particularly transgender rights, though these have also faced legal challenges and public protests. Meantime,the issue of abortion remains highly divisive,with ongoing legal battles over state-level restrictions.

Healthcare
Efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) have sparked widespread protests and legal battles with ongoing debates about access to healthcare, pre-existing conditions,and the role of government in healthcare.

Environment
Trump has almost single handedly destroyed the U.S. reputation as an influential stake player and stakeholder in addressing and mitigating the many faceted global environmental crisis. Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords,his “drill baby drill” mantra, expedited permits for fossil fuel projects, rolling back of emissions reporting requirements and a host of other anti green Trump initiatives have drawn opposition from the public,virtually all within the scientific community,and state and local governments.

Government Efficiency
Where Trump has met with quicker success is with the flurry of executive orders and policy shifts aimed at advancing his agenda of government deregulation.

But here too, the success has been less than initially envisaged. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was established to cut federal spending, reduce bureaucracy, and streamline procurement. While it has overseen some layoffs of civil servants, eliminated some agencies, and rescinded Biden-era rules, including environmental and healthcare regulations,its mission objective of saving a trillion dollars in the federal budget has now been drastically reduced to a modest one hundred and fifty billion dollars according to the latest update by Elon Musk.

Challenging MAGA’s Domestic Agenda

Ominously the outlook for Trump making much headway with his MAGA agenda for the coming months and probably until the end of his current administration in 2028 is looking bleak.

Firstly,he has underestimated the legal and constitutional challenges that are bringing intense legal and public scrutiny and delay into virtually every issue and sector in which he is attempting policy reform and change.

Despite the Supreme Court with the majority of its members being seen as leaning towards the conservative camp, Trump cannot expect automatic support for the cases that are brought before it. This is because the U.S. constitution sets limits on presidential power.

Increasingly too,questions are being asked on the limits of presidential authority and the president's ability to override congress.

Meanwhile, we are seeing the lower judiciary play a crucial role in reviewing the constitutionality of laws and executive actions. This is providing victories to opponents of some of Trump's executive orders and policies. These opponents have been able to block orders relating to various travel bans and border security violations of due process and equal protection.

More damaging for Trump has been the inability to sell any of his key domestic reform agenda to the opposition party. Not only is there little bipartisan cooperation,what has emerged is even deeper political polarization between the Republican and Democrat parties.

This has led to failure to find common ground for legislative agreement on controversial issues. The small majority that the Republican party has in both Senate and House means that the gridlock on every major legislative proposal will lead to stalled policies,delayed implementation and an overall debilitating sense of political stagnation and even regression.

The greatest obstacle in the way of Trump succeeding in his domestic agenda to make his vision of America great is the network of activists and organizations that has emerged around the country to protest on policy issues and to defend against the erosion of their own vision of core American values and democratic norms and institutions which they see the Trump administration destroying.

Although this still evolving and dynamic grassroots movement is handicapped by a host of disadvantages and problems it has been able to mobilize strongly and raise the level of political awareness and engagement, especially among the younger generation.

Foreign Policy Nail in MAGA Coffin?

The final nail in the coffin of Trump's MAGA ironically could well come from his foreign policy agenda. Presently focusing on tariffs against China, it is inflicting considerable pain to a wide swath of American families and businesses. This damage and pain felt by all the constituencies supporting Trump will lead to reversals and losses for the Republican party in the next round of electoral contests.

"I always say 'tariffs' is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary," Trump said at a rally just hours after his inauguration in January. "Because tariffs are going to make us rich as hell.”

The “rich as hell” claim may well go down as one of the most extravagant, bizarre and strangely prophetic proclamations uttered by Trump to upend his government and place in American history.
Can ASEAN and China Help Trump Win?

Trump desperately wants a win on the foreign policy front as his domestic support polling number plummets downward. Since his Ukraine peace initiative looks increasingly doomed, he needs deals with other foreign leaders on his reciprocal tariff imposition to bolster his public relations image.

With China standing firm, his advisers will be clearly looking to “no money” ASEAN to strike deals with. At the same time, following Xi’s visit to the region, Trump has expressed concern that this part of the world is engaged in trying “to figure out how do we screw the United States of America”.

What most people in the world are seeing is that the U.S. has been screwing itself.

Meanwhile Trump is still waiting for Xi to accept his invitation to chat on the phone and to make a deal that can make him look good.

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