美国与中国近日在瑞士达成的协议，暂时缓解了双方的贸易冲突，这不仅让全球股市回暖，也让太平洋两岸因特朗普关税战而承受经济压力的企业和数以百万计的工人松了一口气。
中国代表在宣布协议时表示，这是“重要的一步”，有助于解决中美之间的分歧，并强调此举符合两国及全球经济稳定的利益。中方代表团团长、中国国务院副总理何立峰亦形容这次会谈是“坦诚、深入且建设性”的。
美方则由财政部长史贝森特与贸易代表格里尔主导，两人都强调此次取得“实质进展”。贝森特称会谈“富有成效、具建设性”，而格里尔则指出：“我们能够这么快达成协议，或许也反映出双方分歧并没有外界想像那么大。”
双方代表团也表示，这次会谈已为后续建立长期的“贸易协商机制”铺路，并对未来可能达成更广泛的协议抱持乐观。
贸易与地缘政治竞争
然而，这项初步共识并不应掩盖一个事实：中美双方都深知贸易不只是经济工具，尤其在亚洲，贸易更是地缘政治的基石，关系著盟友互动、影响力扩展，以及区域力量的平衡。
美国财长贝森特曾指出，美方无意全面与中国“脱钩”，而只寻求“战略性切割”。他近期表示，美中之间若能在经济上实现“重大而美好的再平衡”，理想的情况是中美两国携手合作，打开中国消费者的市场，中国则购买更多美国制造的产品。这反映出美方希望在贸易领域实现更均衡的双边关系。不过，贝森特与格里尔势必面临国内“反中派”压力，要求他们善用这场贸易谈判作为维持美国全球政治与经济主导地位的杠杆。
全球社会也应提醒中美两国的谈判代表：若他们能够为了地缘政治和平与稳定做出正确的决定，那么广泛的贸易协定将产生更多正面效果。以下列出一些潜在的利好成果：
地缘政治影响
●贸易纠纷已成为中美全面摩擦的主要来源，影响两国关系的整体发展。若能透过协议解决不公平政策与经济诉求，将有助于降低紧张局势。
●重振多边体制：中美贸易冲突削弱了世界贸易组织等多边贸易机制的权威与功能。通过协议强化多边争端解决机制，重振世贸组织功能。进而推动中美两国重新致力于建立一个更公平、更有效的国际规则秩序承诺。
●协议的谈判与执行需要持续对话与合作。此次初步会谈已培养一定信任，未来有望拓展至更关键的地缘政治议题上，营造一个稳定、可预测的国际环境。
经济影响
●全面性协议将涵盖关税大幅下调与核心争议的解决，减少全球贸易体系分裂风险，重建市场信心，刺激投资与全球经济活动。
●虽然部分供应链已脱钩，但中美若能达成重大贸易协议，将有助稳定供应链、缓解由贸易战引发的通膨与混乱，进而造福全球消费者与企业。
●全球经济成长：更广泛的协议，将推动贸易与投资增长，提高全球经济成长。近日临时减税举动已被视为美国避免经济衰退的措施。这也有望协助中国应对增长放缓。
全球治理影响
●对于气候变迁、疫情应对、核扩散等全球课题上，中美合作至关重要。更广泛的贸易协议将创造更有利的合作环境，包括共同研究、技术转移与行业协议的落实。
●制定新规范：协议亦可能影响人工智能、太空探索、军事科技等领域的国际规范制定。基于中美作为世界两大经济体，其在这些领域的合作或分歧将带来全球性影响。
科技影响
●更广泛协议可涵盖技术转移、知识产权与新兴科技竞争课题，这有利于重塑中美两国的科技竞争格局，并有助于全球创新发展。
●跨国议题如网络安全与核扩散等课题需大国之间合作，贸易协议所带来的降温氛围可为中美寻求合作共识创造条件，惠及全球。
总结，中美若能达成更全面的贸易协议，不仅可减缓紧张局势、强化全球政治与经济秩序、推动全球合作，更可为世界带来稳定性，成为改变游戏规则的重要契机。
更乐观的情境是这样的协议有助于避免全球陷入“新冷战”——即其他国家被迫选边站的局面。取而代之的，将是一种更稳定、灵活与务实的国际关系格局。
然而，能否取得这样成果仍充满变数。一切成效终究取决于协议能否有效执行与落实。
无论如何，即使中美能达成更广泛的协议，未来也难免出现新的贸易、经济或地缘政治争议，届时仍需持续对话、调整与务实领导才能化解。
希望中美最终贸易协议能成为重设地缘竞争格局的典范，以改善全球和平与安全的前景。
林德宜《中美能否藉关税协议重塑全球地缘政治？》原文：Can China and the U.S. Rebalance Global Geopolitics With Their Tariff Agreement?
The agreement between the United States and China in Switzerland providing a temporary de-escalation of trade conflict between the two countries has produced an upturn in global share markets and relief to businesses and the millions of workers on both sides of the Pacific who have borne the brunt of the economic pain of Trump's tariff war.
Announcing the agreement, China's representative called it an "important step" to resolve differences between China and the U.S. He also stressed that it aligned with the interests of both nations and global economic stability. Vice Premier He Lifeng, leader of the Chinese delegation further described the discussions as "candid, in-depth, and constructive".
On the American side, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer emphasized that "substantial progress" had been made. Bessent described the discussions as "productive and constructive" whilst Greer noted that "It's important to understand how quickly we were able to come to agreement, which reflects that perhaps the differences were not so large as far as may be thought."
Both delegations highlighted the establishment of a longer process "trade consultation" and expressed the optimistic hope that this could open the door to a broader agreement.
Trade and Geopolitical Rivalry
This preliminary consensus should not detract or distract from the fact that both sides are aware that trade is not merely an economic tool. In Asia especially it is a fundamental pillar of geopolitical strategy underpinning alliances, projecting influence and shaping the regional balance of power.
The U.S.Treasury Secretary's has asserted that the U.S. does not want "generalized decoupling" from China but only strategic breaks. His recent statement that "we could do a big, beautiful rebalancing" of economic ties with China and the "dream scenario" would be if the US and China could work together to unlock access to Chinese consumers, and China buys more American-made products" may reflect his team's concern for a better balance of the U.S. and China in the trade arena. However, Bessent and Greer will undoubtedly be pushed by the anti China lobby to ensure the U.S. uses it as a key lever to maintain its dominant position in global politics and economics.
The U.S..and China team of negotiators need a reminder from the rest of the world that there can be more positive impacts from a broad based trade agreement if they can make the right decisions in the interest of geopolitical peace and stability. The following is a listing of some of the potential positive impacts.
Geopolitical Impact
● Trade disputes have become a major source of larger and even systemic friction between the US and China, impacting their overall relationship. A comprehensive agreement that addresses trade and other economic concerns of discriminatory or unfair policies can reduce these tensions.
● Multilateral Institutions: The U.S. and China trade and economic disputes have undermined the authority and effectiveness of multilateral trade institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). An agreement could revitalize the WTO by
reinforcing multilateral dispute resolution. This could also lead to a renewed commitment to a fairer and more effective rules-based international order that both countries claim to support.
● The negotiation and implementation of a trade agreement necessitates sustained dialogue and cooperation. This initial meeting has already built a degree of confidence and trust. It should help open more channels for communication on other
critical geopolitical issues to foster a stable and predictable international environment.
Economic Impact
● A comprehensive agreement would likely involve significant tariff reductions and the resolution of key trade disputes. This could lessen the risk of greater fragmentation of the global trade system. The lowering of tariffs can help to restore confidence,
encourage investment, and boost global economic activity.
● While some decoupling of supply chains has occurred, a major trade deal could lead to stabilization of supply chains and reverse the inflationary pressures and disruptions caused by the trade war. This will benefit consumers and businesses worldwide.
● Global Economic Growth: A comprehensive agreement will boost global trade and investment, leading to higher growth rates worldwide. The recent temporary tariff reduction has been cited as a factor that can improve the odds of avoiding a
recession in the U.S. It should also help China in dealing with the slowdown affecting its economic growth.
Global Governance Impact
● Cooperation between the two countries is crucial for addressing global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and nuclear proliferation. A broader trade agreement could foster a more conducive environment for cooperation including on joint research, technology transfer, and the implementation of sectoral agreements.
● Standards and Norms: The agreement could influence the development of international standards and norms in areas such as artificial intelligence, space exploration and even weaponry and military technology proliferation. Given the size
and influence of both economies, any alignment or divergence in these areas could have global repercussions.
Technological Impact
● The agreement could address issues related to technology transfer, intellectual property rights, and competition in emerging technologies. This can positively reshape the dynamics of technological competition between the two nations and have implications for global innovation.
● Transnational issues such as cybersecurity and nuclear proliferation require a degree of cooperation among major global powers. Reduced tensions from a trade agreement could make it easier for the US and China to find common ground and work together on these challenges, thus benefitting the rest of the world.
In conclusion, a broader trade agreement between the U.S. and China has the potential to be a significant positive force and game changer by reducing tensions, strengthening the global political and economic order, fostering cooperation on global challenges, and providing more stability for the rest of the world.
The optimistic scenario also sees it as helping prevent a further descent into a "new Cold War" where other countries are compelled to choose sides. This would allow for the emergence of a more stable, flexible and pragmatic international relations.
However, the specific effects of such an agreement are still uncertain. Whether it ends up as a positive in improving geopolitics will also depend on its effective implementation and enforcement by both sides.
It is also evident that even with a broad agreement, new trade, economic and geopolitical controversies could arise in the future, requiring ongoing dialogue, adjustments and pragmatic leadership to overcome.
Hopefully the final trade agreement can provide a model for resetting geopolitical rivalries to improve the prospect for global peace and security.
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