目前席卷欧洲与北美的热浪，被科学家视为气候变迁加速恶化的最新证据。随著美国东部及北欧多地气温屡创历史新高，持续笼罩的“热穹顶”现象，使数以亿计民众饱受高温折磨，也反映出各国政府未能优先推动更快速的再生能源与洁净能源转型。
然而，在高温致死、极端天气冲击，以及各界寻求降温对策的讨论声浪中，一场较少受到关注的战争正在展开——西方正在再生能源科技领域对中国发动一场政策战。
这场政策战近年来持续升级，核心理念是所谓的“去风险化”，并以防范“中国冲击2.0”为名，保护本国市场。这一概念正不断向西方民众宣传，成为限制中国绿色科技产品的重要理由。
其主要策略包括：对中国产品征收高额关税、制定严格采购规范，以及以供应链安全为由，限制中国电动车、电池、太阳能板及逆变器等产品进入市场。
美国的措施
限制中国逆变器进口：美国目前正制定新法规，以国家电网安全为由，限制中国制能源逆变器的进口。
国防采购禁令：美国修订《国防授权法案》，禁止国防部采购来自被列为“受关切中国企业”所生产的太阳能设备及逆变器。
高关税政策：美国持续对中国制电动车、电池、太阳能电池、钢铁及铝产品征收高额关税。
欧盟的措施
贸易防卫工具：欧盟持续透过反倾销及反补贴措施，限制中国电动车、钢铁及工业制造产品。
《工业加速法案》：欧盟提出《工业加速法案》，要求接受公共资金补助的项目优先采用欧洲供应链，以降低对第三国供应链的依赖。
七国集团（G7）协调行动：欧洲各国与七国集团已同意共同盘点并降低对关键矿产的依赖，此举也将影响再生能源相关产品的供应链布局。
再生能源科技战的下一个战场
目前，西方国家正透过提高关税、加强本地化生产要求，以及对中国太阳能板、电动车及电池展开反补贴调查。
官方宣称，此举是为了保护本土制造业，以及因应中国所谓的“产能过剩”问题。然而，这些壁垒将直接推高进口设备成本，提高消费者购买价格，同时拖慢再生能源与洁净科技的普及速度。
令人难以否认的现实是，中国已经成为全球再生能源产业的市场领导者，也是西方值得借镜的典范。因此，在能源转型及应对气候变迁方面，与其对抗中国，不如与中国合作。
另一项事实是，中国大规模发展再生能源制造能力，创造了惊人的成本优势。2010年至2023年间，在中国大规模生产推动下，全球太阳能板价格下降了89%，也因此大幅加快全球再生能源的普及速度。
中国发展的新长征
中国的“新长征”代表的是一场由政府主导的全面产业升级——从依赖低成本、大规模制造，转向科技自主、绿色能源及高端工业现代化。
西方国家及反中人士，始终以激烈的地缘政治对立视角看待这场转型，将其视为一场零和博弈。过去，他们反对中国的理由，多半建立在国家安全、人权、劳工权益，以及其他治理问题等指控之上。
但如今，这套试图透过宣传唱衰中国、期待中国崩溃的策略，效果已大不如前。越来越多前往中国旅游的西方游客，亲身见闻中国发展，并将真实经验分享给世界。
当这种对抗思维延伸至再生能源领域时，更反映出西方误判了中国经济与全球经济的运作方式。事实上，只要透过合理整合与合作，中国的经济与科技升级，包括正在推动的绿色革命，都能为西方及世界各国创造巨大利益。
可以共同受惠的三大领域
全球都将因中国产业升级而受益，前提是各国维持开放的经济合作，而不是被西方政治人物强加于世界的意识形态对抗所左右。
最明显的例子，就是这波热浪期间，欧美消费者大量购买中国制冷气机及各种降温设备。这也给那些主张限制中国产品进口、动辄以“产能过剩”作为理由的西方政客，以及亚洲一些附和反中的人士，上了一堂现实课。
1。加快全球绿色转型
中国已建立全球去碳化最完整的供应链基础。近年新增的太阳能及风力发电容量，甚至超过全球其他国家总和。
好处：透过中国在电动车、锂电池及太阳能光伏产业的大规模制造优势，西方可以大幅降低实现“净零排放”目标所需成本。
2。推动全球科技突破
中国《第十五个五年规划》（2026—2030）重点投入基础科研、人工智能及前沿科技。根据澳洲战略政策研究所（ASPI）的研究，中国目前已在大多数关键科技领域的科研产出居全球领先。
好处：如果西方愿意鼓励更透明的学术交流及跨国科研合作，而不是将科技发展视为封闭竞争，全球创新速度将更快，也更有能力应对气候变迁带来的挑战。
3。稳定全球供应链
中国新版经济模式，更强调提升产业韧性及避免重大供应链瓶颈。
好处：中国的高度组织化、高科技的制造业体系，有助降低全球供应链受到冲击的风险。即使西方积极推动“去风险化”及“友岸外包”，中国庞大的制造能力仍能成为全球供应链的重要支柱，并有助抑制全球通膨压力。
西方应如何创造双赢局面
若要让中国的“新长征”真正造福世界，各国就必须从目前以防御、孤立及保护主义为主的思维，转向更多合作与伙伴关系。如果西方持续以“中国冲击2.0”为借口，大力推动“去风险化”、筑起市场壁垒，不但无法真正解决问题，反而将损害西方自身利益，也会伤害其他效法这套政策的国家。
过去，西方经常以一句“代价是什么？”来质疑中国的发展模式。如今，西方更应该将这句话反过来问自己：在面对气候变迁、能源转型及全球合作等重大挑战时，自己所采取的政策，其真正代价又是什么？所有西方盟友，也应作出同样的反思，因为这关系到下一代的未来。
林德宜《巴黎与西方酷暑难熬：中国来救场》原文：Paris and West Burns: China Rescue
The current heat wave in Europe and North America is seen by scientists as evidence of the accelerating impact of climate change. With temperatures across eastern U.S. and northern Europe topping historical highs and the heat domes persisting, an unprecedented number of the public - several hundred million people - are suffering from their government's failure to prioritise a more rapid transition to renewable and clean energy technology in their development.
Missing or lost amidst the furore generated by the heat related deaths and other impact caused by the heat wave, and the search for relief from a weather phenomenon that will become more frequent and widespread is the war that the West is waging on the renewable technology front against China.
This policy war has been intensifying with an emphasis on actively "de-risking" and protecting domestic markets from what is being sold to the western gullible public as "China Shock 2.0" .
Key strategies in this war include high tariffs, strict procurement rules, and supply chain security bans targeting electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, and inverters.
United States Initiatives
Targeted Inverter Bans: The U.S. is currently drafting regulations to restrict the import of Chinese energy inverters, citing national security threats to electrical grids.National Defense
Restrictions: The U.S. updated the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) to prohibit the Department of Defense from procuring solar equipment and inverters manufactured by Chinese entities of concern.
Heavy Tariffs: The U.S. continues to enforce major tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, batteries, solar cells, steel, and aluminum.
European Union Initiatives
Trade Defense Instruments: The EU is utilizing anti-dumping and countervailing duties against Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and industrial manufacturing.
Industrial Accelerator Act: The EU has proposed the Industrial Accelerator Act in projects that use public funds, aiming to reduce reliance on third-country supply chains .
G7 Alignment: European leaders and the G7 bloc have collectively agreed to map and reduce critical mineral dependencies. This will affect supply chains including for renewable energy products.
Next On The Renewable Technology War Front
Western nations are currently implementing tariffs, stricter local content requirements, and anti-subsidy investigations on Chinese solar panels, EVs, and batteries.
The primary stated goals are to protect domestic manufacturing and address concerns over China’s alleged overcapacity. As these barriers increase the cost of imported equipment, they will raise upfront prices for consumers and slow down the adoption rate of renewable and clean technology,
The uncomfortable and indisputable reality is that China is a market leader and a role model for the West in renewable energy. Hence, it is counter productive on the energy and climate change fronts to fight rather than work with China.
The other reality is that China’s scaling of renewable energy manufacturing has created significant price efficiencies. Solar panel prices declined by 89% between 2010-2023 due to Chinese production scale. This price effect has accelerated global adoption of renewable technology by making it much cheaper.
China’s New Long March In Development
China’s "New Long March" can be seen also to be referencing the nation's coordinated, state-driven pivot away from cheap, scale-led manufacturing toward technological self-reliance, green and clean energy adoption, and industrial modernization.
This transition has been responded to by the West and China haters through a lens of intense geopolitical friction, treating it as a zero-sum conflict. In the past, opposition to China was justified on security, human rights, labour concerns and other governance related allegations.
This strategy is part of Western propaganda to bring about a China collapse. It no longer works as Western tourists to China reveal to the world their experience.
When reapplied to the renewable energy front, it misjudges how the global and Chinese economy works. If structured and integrated constructively, China's economic and technological evolution including in the green revolution can yield massive dividends for the West and the rest of the world.
Areas of Mutual Benefit
The global community stands to gain significantly from China's upgraded industrial model, provided both sides maintain open economic pipelines free of the ideological battles that Western leaders have foisted on the world.
The clearest example for now is the demand by European and American consumers for Chinese air conditioners and other cooling appliances during this heat wave episode. This is a policy lesson for critics attempting to justify restrictions on Chinese imports on the basis of the reflexive and protectionist ‘overcapacity’ charge regularly brought out by Western lawmakers and politicians and echoed by China's enemies in Asia.
1. Accelerating the Global Green Transition
China has essentially built the supply-chain backbone for the world's decarbonization efforts. Its expansion in renewable energy capacity has been unprecedented, adding more solar and wind power than the rest of the world combined.
The Benefit: By leveraging China’s massive manufacturing efficiencies in electric vehicles (EVs), lithium-ion batteries, and solar photovoltaics, Western countries can dramatically lower the capital cost of hitting their own net-zero climate goals.
2. Driving Global Scientific Breakthroughs
China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) centers on foundational research, artificial intelligence, and frontier sciences. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, China now leads global research output in a vast majority of critical technologies.
The Benefit: Rather than treating scientific advancement as a closed loop, encouraging academic transparency and cross-border scientific collaboration allows Western researchers and corporations to build upon these foundational breakthroughs. This speeds up global innovation cycles that can help to mitigate the impact of climate change.
3. Stabilizing Global Supply Chains
The upgraded version of China’s economic model focuses on industrial resilience and preventing catastrophic bottlenecks.
The Benefit: A highly organized, high-tech manufacturing sector reduces the risk of global supply chain shocks. While the West is actively "de-risking" or friend-shoring critical components, a highly productive Chinese industrial base keeps a floor under global manufacturing capacity, curbing inflationary pressures.
How the West Can Encourage a Productive Outcome
For China’s "New Long March" to benefit everyone, the global response needs to shift from purely defensive isolation and protectionism to engagement and partnership. An emphasis on actively "de-risking" and protecting domestic markets from a perceived "China Shock 2.0" will only hurt the West and other countries attempting similar policy measures.
“At what cost” the conundrum used to criticise China’s development is one that the West needs to apply to itself in this and many more of the ways that it approaches the challenges of our time. Allies of the West should do the same for the sake of the younger generation.
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