所谓一图胜千语，美国总统特朗普和乌克兰总统泽连斯基出席于罗马举行的教宗方济各葬礼时交谈的照片，强力的表明了特朗普将兑现其第一任总统时的承诺——为俄乌战争达成和平协议，结束战争。
尽管协议的细节仍在谈判中──目前，也只是一个停火协议──但最终俄罗斯很可能会取得克里米亚地区，该地区就是俄乌战争爆发的热点。
展望未来，即将到来的和平协议毫无疑问将成为地缘政治的重大转捩点。
这将使俄罗斯总统普京——比特朗普更有利——得以宣布胜利，因为这实质上承认了俄罗斯对克里米亚和顿巴斯地区的控制。接下来，克里米亚地区很可能很快就会被纳入俄罗斯联邦。
北约的衰落
普京一直坚持和平协议中应包括保证乌克兰不会加入北约的条款，他曾多次谴责北约是这场战争的始作俑者。尽管这项排除条款可能不会明确写入最终的和平协议中，但显而易见的是，在这项受特朗普影响、却由普京主导的和平协议中，除了乌克兰，北约无疑是最大的输家。
北约不仅未能将其影响力扩展到俄罗斯东部邻国，而且目前北约内部还面临著显著疑虑与不确定性，甚至可能出现分裂，这将对北约在遏制俄罗斯的作用产生影响。
尽管北约这一组织仍将继续存在，但其在欧洲安全体系中的历史定位——从最初对抗苏联、到近年围堵普京主政下的俄罗斯——如今已遭到严重削弱与动摇。
欧洲各国已开始感受到压力，纷纷强化自身的国防实力，导致欧洲安全局势日益碎片化。俄乌战争和平协议也将使北约的“门户开放”政策受到质疑，让那些原本有意加入北约的国家感到不安与缺乏保障。
西方与俄罗斯关系正常化
另一项关键变化，是自战争爆发以来对俄罗斯所施加的制裁与限制措施将被解除。
这些制裁涵盖金融与能源领域、贸易限制，以及针对被认定与战争有关的个人与实体的各项禁令。
诸如限制出行、禁止俄罗斯航空公司进入多国领空、阻止悬挂俄罗斯国旗的船只进入欧盟港口等措施，很可能将迅速被撤销。针对与俄罗斯进出口贸易的各项制裁，也预期随之解除。
更具争议的是有关解冻俄罗斯资产的议题，这些资产包括俄国政府与私人在西方持有的大量财产。据估计，其总值可能超过1.5兆令吉。乌克兰坚称，这些资产应作为战争赔偿金，用来弥补其在冲突中所受的损害，因乌克兰认为自己是战争受害者。
然而，俄罗斯则坚持另一套叙事，认为自己是北约扩张下的受害者，正是这种压力导致了苏联的解体。基于此立场，俄方不太可能接受将其资产用作赔偿的要求。这可能会成为推迟达成和平协议的症结所在。
和平协议将改变地缘政治格局
无论最终和平协议何时达成、内容如何表述、双方作出何种让步以终结战争，毫无疑问的是，俄罗斯已经重新夺回其失落的世界强权地位。
俄罗斯及其盟友，还有世界各地（包括西方与东盟）那些在战争期间保持沉默的支持者，将会把这次和平协议视为俄罗斯继二战击败纳粹德国之后的又一次重大胜利——尽管这场胜利是以巨大的损失为代价换来的。
另一些则认为，和平协议标志著历史性的关键转折点，大国之间的决策不仅创造了前例，也将引发深远的地缘政治后果。
美国国务卿虑比奥在就任不久后、二月接受媒体访问时指出：
“所以，世界只有一个单极强权并不是常态。那只是冷战结束后的一个异常状态。但最终，世界会回到一个多极格局，出现多个大国分处不同地区。我们现在面对的正是这种局面——有中国，某种程度上还有俄罗斯。”
特朗普的经济战
随著俄罗斯重返大国之列，我们也应该会看到俄罗斯与中国和其他南方国家一道，在建立一个更公正、合理和独立的基于规则的国际秩序方面发挥关键作用。
作为金砖五国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非）的创始成员，俄罗斯在金砖国家组织成立过程中发挥了重要作用，并从一开始便承诺支持该组织，使其成为西方在对抗金砖国家组织，并试图削弱这一反制西方主导全球经济秩序的力量时的强大对手。
此外，作为全球主要能源生产国（石油和天然气），以及拥有大量自然资源（其中许多尚未完全开发）的国家，俄罗斯的经济影响力不容忽视。这也就不难理解为何美国希望俄罗斯站在其一边，共同维护美国日益削弱的全球地缘政治和经济霸权。
因此，我们可以预见，尽管美国对世界其他国家发起的关税战仍在进行，特朗普政府将在俄乌战争和平协议达成后，向俄罗斯做出一连串的让步。这是因为对不管是共和党和民主党领袖而言，关税和经济战针对的是美国生死攸关的敌人——中国。
然而，普京不大可能因为美国的这些让步与诱因而放弃他所建立的盟友关系。这一点尤为重要，因为普京不会为了美国在俄罗斯战略地缘政治和解中提供的“胡萝卜”，而失去他在世界各地所赢得的支持和尊重。
林德宜《乌克兰与北约：和平协议的最大输家》原文：Ukraine and NATO: Big Losers in Peace Agreement
A picture paints a thousand words. The photo of Trump and Zelensky in conversation while attending the funeral ceremony of Pope Francis in Rome is the strongest indication that the U.S. president is about to succeed in his first presidential promise - that of bringing about a peace agreement to end the Ukraine Russia war.
Although details of the agreement are still being negotiated - for now, it is simply a truce pause - it will likely end with Russia retaining the Crimean region which was the territorial flash point for the beginning of the war.
Looking further ahead, there is little doubt that the coming peace agreement will be a geopolitical game changer.
It will enable Putin - much more than Trump - to declare victory with the de facto recognition of Russian control over areas of the Crimean and Donbas region. This is likely to be quickly followed by the incorporation of the Crimea states into the Russian federation.
The Eclipse of NATO
Putin has been insistent that the agreement should include guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO which he has repeatedly denounced as the instigator of the war. This may not be written explicitly into the final peace document. Even if this exclusion clause does not appear, it is clear that, along with Ukraine, NATO is the biggest loser in this Trump-influenced but Putin-determined peace agreement.
Not only has NATO been stopped in its attempt to extend its influence along the eastern flank of countries bordering Russia, there are now significant concerns and uncertainty, and potential divisions within NATO, with implications for the alliance's role in containing Russia.
Although the organization will continue to exist, its historical position in European security based on bringing down the Soviet Union initially, and Putin's Russia more recently has now been drastically compromised and undermined.
Already European nations have felt compelled to increase their own defense capabilities leading to a more fragmented European security landscape. The peace agreement will also bring into question the "open door" policy of NATO and make other countries that are looking to join the organization feel less secure.
West Normalizes Relations With Russia
Another key aspect is the waiving of sanctions and other restrictions imposed on Russia since the war began.
These have included sanctions in the financial and energy sectors, trade restrictions as well as restrictions on individuals and entities identified as associated with the war.
Measures such as restrictions on air travel and the banning of Russian airlines from the airspace of countries, and blocking of Russian-flagged vessels from accessing EU ports are likely to be quickly abandoned. As are sanctions on exports and imports dealing with Russia.
More contentious is the unfreezing of Russian assets, including both state and private holdings held in the west. Currently estimated to be potentially significantly higher than Malaysian $1.5 trillion, Ukraine has insisted that these assets should be used as reparations payment for the war damage which it sees itself as the victim. Russia, with its own narrative of victimization by NATO which resulted in the breakup of the Soviet Union, is unlikely to agree to this demand. It is possible that this may provide a sticking point delaying the conclusion of the peace agreement.
Peace Agreement as a Geopolitical Game Changer
Whenever the peace agreement is arrived at, however the final peace agreement is written up, no matter the precise terms of agreement, and whatever the concessions made by Ukraine and Russia to end the war, there is little doubt that Russia has regained its lost great power status.
Russians and their allies and other supporters in the world including in the west and ASEAN who have remained quiet, will see this as replicating Russia's victory over Nazi Germany during the second world war, despite the horrendous losses it has suffered.
Others are seeing the agreement as a pivotal historical turning point where great power decision making sets precedents and brings about far-reaching consequences.
In February soon after his appointment as Secretary of State, Marco Rubio noted in a press interview:
“So it’s not normal for the world to simply have a unipolar power. That was not - that was an anomaly. It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet. We face that now with China and to some extent Russia”.
Trump’s Economic War Ahead
Together with its return to great power status, we should also see Russia play a key role in the establishment of a fairer, more equitable and independent rules based international order, together with China and other countries of the Global South.
Russia’s position as a founding member of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), its role in formalizing the group in 2006, and its commitment to the organization from its inception makes it a formidable opponent to Western efforts to bring down BRICS as a counterweight to the Western-dominated global economic order.
Add to this Russia’s economic clout as a major global energy producer (oil and gas) and vast array of natural resources (many only partially exploited), it is not surprising that the U.S. wants Russia to be on its side in the American struggle and battle to retain its diminished global geopolitical and economic supremacy.
We can expect the Trump administration to dangle concession after concession to Russia following the peace agreement even as the U.S. pursues a tariff war ostensibly aimed at the rest of the world. This is because the tariff and economic war is especially targeting what both Republican and Democratic party leaders identify as America’s existential enemy, China.
However, it is extremely unlikely that Putin will succumb to these offerings and other inducements and abandon his friends and allies. This is also important because Putin will not want to lose the support and respect he has won around the world in return for the carrots the U.S. may provide as part of its strategic geopolitical rapprochement with Russia.
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